Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
